Ramblerambleramble...

[persephone_kore]

I keep seeing entries lately where, in relation to the next Harry Potter book, people hold forth or argue about whether it's legitimate to prejudge Plot Development X (or the lack thereof) as good or bad. I'm a little torn, myself. I think that there are some developments I could safely say ahead of time would strike me as unenjoyable or inconsistent or lower quality than other alternatives -- even some plausible ones. On the other hand, I tend to think that nearly any scenario can be done well... and as others have previously pointed out, JKR's stock in trade involves putting together innumerable cliches (or classic story elements) in her own way. The world's bricks and her own mortar, so to speak. Kinda like Star Wars, and I mean that with no disrespect to either JKR or Lucas.

I am not making any pledges about staying in the fandom, or not judging the book based on one particular element or another, or declaring that if I made a wrong prediction it was my own fault for misreading. Considering that there are plenty of library books I've read and reread without ever buying my own copies, I think the fact that I've got a copy of HBP on reserve and intend to pick it up sometime on July 16 is a perfectly adequate expression of confidence that A. after writing five books I enjoyed, JKR will not suddenly shift into some bizarre gear of BANG (or POO) and B. I will want to talk to people about the book badly enough to pay for it in hardcover.

(I freely admit to being very fandom-influenced in that respect. If I didn't want to discuss it with people, I wouldn't consider reading it to be nearly so urgent a prospect.)

I will say, however, that there are stories where I adore certain concepts or characters but disagree with the author on major points and/or think the execution/development/followup was poor or erratic. So I can understand people who find their imagination captured by some aspects of a story but find themselves "fighting" with other portions.

But what the heck, I think I'll make some predictions about HBP. Granted, some of the stuff I was tickled to get right about OotP was a complete accident. I feel free to gloat about the characterization Alan and I gave Ginny in the Time's Riddle AU, since it was based on the assumption that she was generally pretty spunky in situations more normal than her first year, which are not hard to come by. While circumstances and not-being-JKR dictate that there are probably aspects that aren't a perfect fit, the Ginny thrust into our attention in OotP confirmed our basic conclusions. On the other hand, our study group that was supposed to end up in a little-known room of Hogwarts and our magical chameleons whose extreme blending-in camouflage worked about the same way as the Disillusionment Charm? Total chance, but terribly amusing.

Anyway, here goes: HBP predictions with a few book 7 thrown in.

1. The half-blood prince will turn out to be Godric Gryffindor. Merlin and Salazar are running second in my mind.

2. We will learn more about the Founders.
2a. This will include having it shown that Godric, Rowena, and/or Helga had flaws and could act like jerks.
2b. In accordance with the respose to Dumbledore's fallibility and Snape's Worst Memory, much of the fandom will forget anything positive we know about them and throw fits about how all the Founders except Salazar are evil, irredeemable, worthless scum.

3. We will learn more about Tom Riddle's background. (I suspect this is not actually a prediction but a reference to an interview, but I'm not sure.)

4. Harry will be back on the Quidditch team as Seeker.

5. Someone will explain to Harry the difference between murder and killing in self-defense. (This may only be wishful thinking.)

6. Parseltongue will become relevant again. It's about time.
6a. The boa will show up or be mentioned again. (Just-for-fun prediction.)

7. Snape will not be a villain. He might look like one for a while (again), and he will still frequently be a jerk, but Harry will eventually have to come to terms with the fact that Snape does not like him but has made real efforts to protect him anyway. Even though they broke down over Occlumency and the Pensieve. But frankly, I don't buy that book one's decoy-villain will turn out to be one for real, and I don't think JKR will break down what she's established in terms of a personal enemy genuinely doing wrong but being an ally and not-evil in the larger sense.
7a. I don't know whether Snape will or won't come to terms with the fact that Harry is not James, that his own view of James may have been skewed, and/or that Harry was nosing into the Pensieve out of suspicion rather than prurience. I'd really like him to, though. (Especially considering that some of the reading audience doesn't seem to grasp this last point. *eyeroll*)

8. Both Godric's Hollow and the Riddle House will be important again, but I'm not sure whether this will be in book 6 or 7.

9. HBP will not feel as "down" as OotP. No doubt there will be areas in which things will fall apart (the Dementors are running around loose, after all, and the DEs may well escape), but I think that even if Voldemort is making moves and causing major problems, the indications are that Harry and those immediately around him will be regrouping and getting their act together. I don't think any of the characters were at their best in OotP, and I think they will be doing a little better here. (OotP was darker than I was expecting, true, and it showed that I had probably been inclined to be too charitable in my estimation of many of the characters' good sense -- but it was still fun in many places, and I still don't think the overall tone of the series is going to head straight down a Dementor's throat. Nor do I agree with those who think it would be a better story if it did.)

10. The business of inter-house unity will start involving the Slytherins. There have been signs of this right from the first book on; while Harry certainly has a dark side, I don't think "You would do well in Slytherin" is necessarily it. There are definitely real problems with Slytherin House, and some of them go straight back to Salazar Slytherin -- but while Slytherin has problems, I think Harry and others have made excessively sweeping assumptions. There will be some changes on both sides, in both attitude and reality, and I think HBP is where it's going to have to start.

11. Bonus prediction for the series as a whole, aka, attack of the really obvious:
11a. Harry will win.
11b. The prophecy will not mean quite what Harry and Dumbledore currently think it does. It will probably surprise Voldemort, too.

12. Predictions for the series as a whole which are not quite as certain:
12a. The Trio finishes the story alive.
12b. Hermione gets Ron, and vice versa, and they are happy about it.
12c. Ginny gets Harry, and vice versa, and they are happy about it too.

Comments

[labellementeuse.livejournal.com]

A lot of things there I just want to say "word" to. :P But I feel like you put all the trouble into being very meta and I should at least somewhat meet that. (especially because I'm too lazy to do anything similar for myself: I know I won't leave the fandom, I'l confident I'll like HBP, there are numerous things which I'm quite sure will happen which are frankly too tiresome to enumerate, and I haven't got a whole heap of thoughtful plot description. Also I don't know who the HBP is, but it's either a Founder or... someone else. Probably a Founder.)

Ahem. Anyway.

I freely admit to being very fandom-influenced in that respect. If I didn't want to discuss it with people, I wouldn't consider reading it to be nearly so urgent a prospect.

Seconded. I feel sorry for all the people out there who simply don't realise how much fandom can do for your enjoyment of a book. Which is to say, i think reading the book is something personal, just like every other book- that's why I don't want to do any of the chapter-by-chapter or reading club things. I think a first read should be pure. But beyond the first, and fifth, read, I think fandom is just... fantastic. :D Fandom love.

On the other hand, our study group that was supposed to end up in a little-known room of Hogwarts...

I think this is why I never felt that the Room of Requirement was anything too unusual, and similar things have made me react similarly... because this fandom is so huge, and you really can read a lot of fic if you feel like it- and I was, before OotP, although not so much right now- that, like the Shakespeare's monkeys theory, eventually someone is going to write something that's similar to what happens. I do think it's made my reading a little bit different, a sort of more seamless transition, in the little details. Um, not being very coherent here, but I do think it's an interesting phenomenon.

Oh, an example- like Ginny. I read a lot of spunky Ginny before OotP, and so when I read it and she was cool it didn't occur to me that this was surprising in any way- yet clearly, because a lot of people I've talked to have mentioned it, it was, if not a surprise, definitely something that they noticed in OotP. While it'd never occurred to me that she wouldn't be, well, like she was. This has to do with both fandom and earlier hints in the books, of course, but I think it's also lead to me underplaying- in my own mind- Ginny's role in OotP. Which is a shame, because she was cool.

2b. In accordance with the respose to Dumbledore's fallibility and Snape's Worst Memory, much of the fandom will forget anything positive we know about them and throw fits about how all the Founders except Salazar are evil, irredeemable, worthless scum.

Sometimes fandom is so one-dimensional. *wry* all of a sudden everyone's very sorry for Snape- I never liked him and I still don't. On the other hand I wish she'd examined Harry's reactions a bit more not towards his dad but towards Snape- for most of his life at primary school- as far as we can tell- he was in a similar situation. And I know this is five years later but... six years in primary school can really affect you. Rambling on, I've always thought it was a bit of a shame that JKR has really neglected to show Harry ever having any sign of empathy for the underdog. I know that kids who are bullied are not be default really lovely people who, once they get power of their own, want to champion everyone else- but a little introspection, say in GOF or whatever, might have been interesting.

[persephone-kore.livejournal.com]

Seconded. I feel sorry for all the people out there who simply don't realise how much fandom can do for your enjoyment of a book. Which is to say, i think reading the book is something personal, just like every other book- that's why I don't want to do any of the chapter-by-chapter or reading club things. I think a first read should be pure. But beyond the first, and fifth, read, I think fandom is just... fantastic. :D Fandom love.

Heh. Maddening sometimes, but still... it definitely adds something. (And I can always withdraw to my core of Relatively Sane People, or Similarly Insane People, whenever some sections get annoying.) I think about things I wouldn't otherwise... yeah.

I think this is why I never felt that the Room of Requirement was anything too unusual, and similar things have made me react similarly... because this fandom is so huge, and you really can read a lot of fic if you feel like it- and I was, before OotP, although not so much right now- that, like the Shakespeare's monkeys theory, eventually someone is going to write something that's similar to what happens. I do think it's made my reading a little bit different, a sort of more seamless transition, in the little details.

Well, the Room of Requirement definitely wasn't how I'd pictured it -- ours was a lot tamer, and used to be Salazar Slytherin's office -- but it was still amusing. (And the Disillusionment spell matching the chameleons was just completely random.)

But yes, I think you're right. And I think this is why a lot of people complained that OotP felt like fanfic: so many people were guessing, and JKR had left enough clues, that there had to be elements people had guessed. But there were still things nobody got.

Ginny didn't strike me as unexpected, though I don't think I was inclined to downplay her because of it -- I was stuck on her straight on from CoS. *g* Well, strike that -- I was a bit startled by the... edge, by the lying to Molly and such. As I think I've said elsewhere, I was probably too charitable toward a lot of characters.

I suppose I can see her being a surprise, but the kind of surprise that fits and makes you go, "Oh, so that's how it is," not "What the heck, where did that come from?" -- I tend to attribute the claims of a 180-degree character change to coming from the wrong side of fandom. ;) Maybe that isn't fair.

all of a sudden everyone's very sorry for Snape- I never liked him and I still don't.

Oh, I actually do like him -- not that he's nice, but he's fun -- but not because of SWM.

I think Harry does have some empathy for the underdog, though. Just because it isn't something he sits down and thinks out (except, actually, in Snape's Worst Memory) doesn't mean it isn't there; he doesn't really go out of his way on a regular basis, but he does strike me as inclined to be kind/sympathetic when it comes up. Unless they're actively annoying him, in which case most people are sunk anyway.

[labellementeuse.livejournal.com]

Well, the Room of Requirement definitely wasn't how I'd pictured it -- ours was a lot tamer, and used to be Salazar Slytherin's office -- but it was still amusing. right. It's the, hmm, idea of it I think.

- I tend to attribute the claims of a 180-degree character change to coming from the wrong side of fandom. ;) You, me, and the rest of the sane people agree. ;)

I think Harry does have some empathy for the underdog, though. Just because it isn't something he sits down and thinks out (except, actually, in Snape's Worst Memory) doesn't mean it isn't there;
*considers* a good point, actually.

[persephone-kore.livejournal.com]

You, me, and the rest of the sane people agree. ;)

Hee.

*considers* a good point, actually.

Thanks. :) If I may take the excuse to elaborate... Without looking back through them, I really can't think of a whole lot of introspection anywhere in the books. There's... wondering if he can really be a wizard, maybe, in PS, and the attacks of house-related self-doubt in CoS, and stopping to contemplate his reaction to Ron's prefect badge in OotP... and I'm sure there are other cases, but it doesn't seem to be something he delves into on a regular basis.

It also occurs to me, however, that he may need to do a little bit more of it in the next couple of books. Maybe he can get through reevaluating people and pulling himself together and so forth without... he's certainly rearranged ideas "on the move" before... but I'm not sure that's how it'll go. Especially if he's partly reevaluating his own actions and instincts.

[labellementeuse.livejournal.com]

(too long for one comment, what what?)

He might look like one for a while (again), and he will still frequently be a jerk, but Harry will eventually have to come to terms with the fact that Snape does not like him but has made real efforts to protect him anyway.

And Ron will not trust him. Don't they ever learn?

I don't know whether Snape will or won't come to terms with the fact that Harry is not James, that his own view of James may have been skewed, and/or that Harry was nosing into the Pensieve out of suspicion rather than prurience. I'd really like him to, though. (Especially considering that some of the reading audience doesn't seem to grasp this last point. *eyeroll*)

Snape sure doesn't paint a very accurate picture of stable adulthood. I know a lot of people who can keep grudges for astoundingly great lengths of time, for about pretty much exactly the same reasons (except for the whole Shack incident) as Snape's... but they sure as hell wouldn't extend the grudge to their kids.

Also with regards to fandom- look, Snape has to look at Harry's actions. but I think fandom needs to be thinking a little bit more in terms of the book: sometimes you need devices, and the Pensieve was a device, and not even a particularly subtle one. it's not Harry's fault he looked into it, it's JKR's! She needed a way to, oh, give Harry more angst- I know, I know, it's more complicated than that- and she needed a way to do it reasonably plausibly without setting up anything terribly complicated or publicly humiliating for Snape. That was the way.

9. HBP will not feel as "down" as OotP
Actually, I think JKR said in an interview somewhere that OotP is "Harry's lowest point." I'm not sure how it works that his lowest point is before Sirius' death and not after, but I am frankly relieved anyway. :D I want a little bit of happiness for our boy.

10. The business of inter-house unity will start involving the Slytherins.

And you know what? If we get a Good!Slytherin- which I suspect we will- and it's not Theodore Nott, I think sixth_light will spontaneously combust- especially if it's, like, Blaise or someone. She'd have conniptions. It's almost enough for me to wish for it, except I genuinely do want Theo&Anne to be a tad plausible so... ;) Also, from what she's said about Theodore on her website, I think there's quite a good case for it. *crosses fingers*

11. Bonus prediction for the series as a whole, aka, attack of the really obvious:
11a. Harry will win.

*snickers* And after the seventh book comes out, they'll make you put it under a really big spoiler warning. *facepalm*

[persephone-kore.livejournal.com]

Actually, I think JKR said in an interview somewhere that OotP is "Harry's lowest point." I'm not sure how it works that his lowest point is before Sirius' death and not after, but I am frankly relieved anyway. :D I want a little bit of happiness for our boy.

Well, OotP did include some time after Sirius's death -- and it was rather stormy! -- but he did basically spend the entire book in a funk with nearly everything seeming to go wrong. And a chronic headache. Losing Sirius was... the culmination, but I think Harry hit bottom and is on his way back up.

I remember that quote. I should've specified that this wasn't a proper prediction either. *wry grin*

And you know what? If we get a Good!Slytherin- which I suspect we will- and it's not Theodore Nott, I think sixth_light will spontaneously combust- especially if it's, like, Blaise or someone. She'd have conniptions. It's almost enough for me to wish for it, except I genuinely do want Theo&Anne to be a tad plausible so... ;) Also, from what she's said about Theodore on her website, I think there's quite a good case for it. *crosses fingers*

Yeah, I think there is. Not being part of Draco's crowd is going to be a requirement, I think, and is thus a promising sign.

I think we'll have more than just one, but not too many developed.

*snickers* And after the seventh book comes out, they'll make you put it under a really big spoiler warning. *facepalm*

Yeah, I followed a link to a supposedly spoiler-laden article shortly before OotP... It did give Umbridge's name, I think, but I posted the other two major pieces of information uncut out of sheer defiance. It informed us that Ron was really interested in Quidditch and Hermione had been researching something.

...Come to think of it, I'm not sure what she was researching. I still think her approach to the house-elf problem indicates that she hasn't researched enough. (Obviously she needs more information, if she's going on about how happy they'll be and they're going on strike in a huff.)

[labellementeuse.livejournal.com]

Well, OotP did include some time after Sirius's death -- and it was rather stormy! -- but he did basically spend the entire book in a funk with nearly everything seeming to go wrong.

IN CAPSLOCK. Yeah. Also, fifth form is not a fun year, although personally, I thought sixth from was much worse. :P

I think we'll have more than just one, but not too many developed. I agree. I'm hoping for some good Slytherin girls, as well, although that may be too much to wish for. :)

It informed us that Ron was really interested in Quidditch and Hermione had been researching something. *spittakes*

I mean, I have a lot of sympathy for people who don't like spoilers BUT. There are limits. Things like taking the blurb off the backs of the covers, or deciding not to go see the covers- these are all things that you see before you read the book anyway, for Pete's sake. And OMG Hermione's researching something? NO! :P

[persephone-kore.livejournal.com]

To be fair, it may have been slightly more specific on both scores, but that really was the gist of it.

And I still maintain that if the blurb is too spoilery to let out before the release date, it's too spoilery to be a blurb and they should have rewritten it. I think they're just feeding the hype.

[yma2.livejournal.com]

Those all sound like pretty believable predictions... though I'm not sure about Harry surviving until the end... or about the Harry/Ginny thing. I think they might go out at some point, but I'm not sure they'll end the series together... But maybe that's just me. But yeah, I like these ideas and I hope some of them come true.

[persephone-kore.livejournal.com]

Well, it's not just you who doubts either one of those... but disregarding the questions/arguments about its being a kids' series, it just doesn't strike me as the type of story that ends with the hero dead. Nor do the Harry/Ginny hints strike me as a decoy. But mileage may vary. *g*

[a-t-rain.livejournal.com]

9. HBP will not feel as "down" as OotP. No doubt there will be areas in which things will fall apart (the Dementors are running around loose, after all, and the DEs may well escape), but I think that even if Voldemort is making moves and causing major problems, the indications are that Harry and those immediately around him will be regrouping and getting their act together. I don't think any of the characters were at their best in OotP, and I think they will be doing a little better here. (OotP was darker than I was expecting, true, and it showed that I had probably been inclined to be too charitable in my estimation of many of the characters' good sense -- but it was still fun in many places, and I still don't think the overall tone of the series is going to head straight down a Dementor's throat. Nor do I agree with those who think it would be a better story if it did.)

Oh good. I was beginning to think I was the only person who believed this -- particularly the last bit. I honestly think OotP is about as dark as it's going to get, and that the humor and fun of the books is a huge part of their thematic message.

[persephone-kore.livejournal.com]

...Hey! It's you! I don't think I realized you had a Livejournal. (Possibly this is something I should have noticed sooner, but... well, let's just say it never would have occurred to me that there was anything odd about Harry not knowing the names of everyone he's been in class with for four or five years and leave it at that.) Anyway, nice to see you, I like your stories; they are fun.

I forgot to mention that this particular prediction was partly drawn from an interview quote in which JKR pretty much said straight out that OotP had been Harry's low point and in HBP he'd have to pull himself together and start taking on responsibilities. Or something like that. I was just elaborating. So I'm pretty confident on this one. *g*

I can understand admiring people who don't flinch at writing a certain amount of realistic darkness, but I don't really get preferring a despairing ending when a hopeful one would fit as well better.

[a-t-rain.livejournal.com]

I don't get it, either. I suppose it ties in with one particular literary prejudice that I've always found rather strange: the notion that the darker a story is, the more realistic (or artistically valid) it is. (This idea seems to be epidemic in academia as well as fandom -- I get the impression that a lot of my colleagues don't know what to do with Jane Austen because she wrote, well, happy books -- so they tend to manufacture dark shadows that may not actually be there. Which reminds me a lot of what people do to Rowling, both in essays and in fanfic.)

[persephone-kore.livejournal.com]

I think I remember suspecting that about Literature People in high school, too.

(I need to reread House of Seven Gables sometime and figure out whether my (favorite!) English teacher was picking on me by acting surprised when I referred to it as having a fairly happy ending, or if it's really ominous and depressing and I just missed it...)

[chthonya]

The half-blood prince will turn out to be Godric Gryffindor. Merlin and Salazar are running second in my mind.

I really hope it's not Merlin. Salazar would be a nice twist, espcially if he's shown as not-evil - would be a way to start bringing the Slytherins onside, though I'm not sure how likely that is, given CoS. I hope it is one of the Founders, though - I'll be disappointed if it's an entirely new character. (Well, more accurately I'll find it more difficult to absorb if it's a new character. At this stage I'd rather see JKR bringing threads together than going off into entirely new areas.)


In accordance with the respose to Dumbledore's fallibility and Snape's Worst Memory, much of the fandom will forget anything positive we know about them and throw fits about how all the Founders except Salazar are evil, irredeemable, worthless scum.

*g*


6a. The boa will show up or be mentioned again. (Just-for-fun prediction.)

Oh yes, that would be fun!



HBP will not feel as "down" as OotP.

I'm not sure about this one - didn't JKR say in an interview a while ago that she'd like to take Harry out to lunch because she felt so bad about what she would be putting him through in Book 6?

That said, if Dumbledore isn't avoiding Harry and the book starts with something nice (i.e. whatever brings Harry to the Burrow) and there isn't that Umbridge-induced sense that the once bastion of security is being eaten from within, then it mightn't feel as down as OotP, whatever horrible things happen. I hope so - OotP was not a pleasant read in some ways.

Hmmm. Perhaps that's why I'm not feeling so excited about this one?


10. The business of inter-house unity will start involving the Slytherins.

Personally, I think it's likely to be a tenuous start - that the climax of this book will set up the conditions for this change in Book 7, in the way the Ministry's hostility was made evident at the end of GoF.


11a. Harry will win.

:)

[persephone-kore.livejournal.com]

I really hope it's not Merlin. Salazar would be a nice twist, espcially if he's shown as not-evil - would be a way to start bringing the Slytherins onside, though I'm not sure how likely that is, given CoS. I hope it is one of the Founders, though - I'll be disappointed if it's an entirely new character. (Well, more accurately I'll find it more difficult to absorb if it's a new character. At this stage I'd rather see JKR bringing threads together than going off into entirely new areas.)

Merlin would seem a bit sudden -- he's been very much part of the background so far, and while introducing new things can still work at this stage, tackling Arthurian legend does seem a little unlikely. Still, it'd be interesting.

Salazar could be fun, but I think Godric has a better shot. Of course, I forgot the really obvious candidate -- if I weren't so bogged down in fandom's obsession over the big secret, I'd just figure it was Dumbledore.

But I want it to be a Founder so we'll find out more about them. Hee.

I'm not sure about this one - didn't JKR say in an interview a while ago that she'd like to take Harry out to lunch because she felt so bad about what she would be putting him through in Book 6?

I'm not sure of the date of this interview (though it may indeed have been post-OotP), but I'm pretty sure that she didn't specify book 6... and I think she also said at some point that OotP was the lowest of the books. I suppose I should dig up the quotes somewhere.


Personally, I think it's likely to be a tenuous start - that the climax of this book will set up the conditions for this change in Book 7, in the way the Ministry's hostility was made evident at the end of GoF.

Hmmm. I think it'll be very tentative and problematic on both sides at first, but I do think the change will be well in progress before the final battle, whether the bulk of it comes in this book or the next. I'm thinking there will be some noteworthy progress in HBP, though if we spend a lot of time on whatever Harry's doing with Dumbledore, I could see Harry being prepared for the change before the Slytherins mostly are. Then again, I suppose that depends on how it's constructed....

*is impatient*

[chthonya]

But I want it to be a Founder so we'll find out more about them. Hee.


Likewise. :)



I'm not sure of the date of this interview (though it may indeed have been post-OotP)

I'm pretty sure it was, and that she was working on HBP at the time. But I don't trust my interpretation of JKR's interviews now, after being convinced that she wasn't going to kill Sirius because she'd said pre-GoF that she wouldn't. (referring only to GoF, I see now!)


I do think the change will be well in progress before the final battle

I agree - and hopefully key to it. I suppose the bulk of it could come in HBP; it just seems that it would have to be a huge turnaround after there being no sign of it to date. But anything's possible.

*is impatient*

*g*