Ramblerambleramble...
Jun. 26th, 2005 06:44 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
persephone_koreI keep seeing entries lately where, in relation to the next Harry Potter book, people hold forth or argue about whether it's legitimate to prejudge Plot Development X (or the lack thereof) as good or bad. I'm a little torn, myself. I think that there are some developments I could safely say ahead of time would strike me as unenjoyable or inconsistent or lower quality than other alternatives -- even some plausible ones. On the other hand, I tend to think that nearly any scenario can be done well... and as others have previously pointed out, JKR's stock in trade involves putting together innumerable cliches (or classic story elements) in her own way. The world's bricks and her own mortar, so to speak. Kinda like Star Wars, and I mean that with no disrespect to either JKR or Lucas.
I am not making any pledges about staying in the fandom, or not judging the book based on one particular element or another, or declaring that if I made a wrong prediction it was my own fault for misreading. Considering that there are plenty of library books I've read and reread without ever buying my own copies, I think the fact that I've got a copy of HBP on reserve and intend to pick it up sometime on July 16 is a perfectly adequate expression of confidence that A. after writing five books I enjoyed, JKR will not suddenly shift into some bizarre gear of BANG (or POO) and B. I will want to talk to people about the book badly enough to pay for it in hardcover.
(I freely admit to being very fandom-influenced in that respect. If I didn't want to discuss it with people, I wouldn't consider reading it to be nearly so urgent a prospect.)
I will say, however, that there are stories where I adore certain concepts or characters but disagree with the author on major points and/or think the execution/development/followup was poor or erratic. So I can understand people who find their imagination captured by some aspects of a story but find themselves "fighting" with other portions.
But what the heck, I think I'll make some predictions about HBP. Granted, some of the stuff I was tickled to get right about OotP was a complete accident. I feel free to gloat about the characterization Alan and I gave Ginny in the Time's Riddle AU, since it was based on the assumption that she was generally pretty spunky in situations more normal than her first year, which are not hard to come by. While circumstances and not-being-JKR dictate that there are probably aspects that aren't a perfect fit, the Ginny thrust into our attention in OotP confirmed our basic conclusions. On the other hand, our study group that was supposed to end up in a little-known room of Hogwarts and our magical chameleons whose extreme blending-in camouflage worked about the same way as the Disillusionment Charm? Total chance, but terribly amusing.
Anyway, here goes: HBP predictions with a few book 7 thrown in.
1. The half-blood prince will turn out to be Godric Gryffindor. Merlin and Salazar are running second in my mind.
2. We will learn more about the Founders.
2a. This will include having it shown that Godric, Rowena, and/or Helga had flaws and could act like jerks.
2b. In accordance with the respose to Dumbledore's fallibility and Snape's Worst Memory, much of the fandom will forget anything positive we know about them and throw fits about how all the Founders except Salazar are evil, irredeemable, worthless scum.
3. We will learn more about Tom Riddle's background. (I suspect this is not actually a prediction but a reference to an interview, but I'm not sure.)
4. Harry will be back on the Quidditch team as Seeker.
5. Someone will explain to Harry the difference between murder and killing in self-defense. (This may only be wishful thinking.)
6. Parseltongue will become relevant again. It's about time.
6a. The boa will show up or be mentioned again. (Just-for-fun prediction.)
7. Snape will not be a villain. He might look like one for a while (again), and he will still frequently be a jerk, but Harry will eventually have to come to terms with the fact that Snape does not like him but has made real efforts to protect him anyway. Even though they broke down over Occlumency and the Pensieve. But frankly, I don't buy that book one's decoy-villain will turn out to be one for real, and I don't think JKR will break down what she's established in terms of a personal enemy genuinely doing wrong but being an ally and not-evil in the larger sense.
7a. I don't know whether Snape will or won't come to terms with the fact that Harry is not James, that his own view of James may have been skewed, and/or that Harry was nosing into the Pensieve out of suspicion rather than prurience. I'd really like him to, though. (Especially considering that some of the reading audience doesn't seem to grasp this last point. *eyeroll*)
8. Both Godric's Hollow and the Riddle House will be important again, but I'm not sure whether this will be in book 6 or 7.
9. HBP will not feel as "down" as OotP. No doubt there will be areas in which things will fall apart (the Dementors are running around loose, after all, and the DEs may well escape), but I think that even if Voldemort is making moves and causing major problems, the indications are that Harry and those immediately around him will be regrouping and getting their act together. I don't think any of the characters were at their best in OotP, and I think they will be doing a little better here. (OotP was darker than I was expecting, true, and it showed that I had probably been inclined to be too charitable in my estimation of many of the characters' good sense -- but it was still fun in many places, and I still don't think the overall tone of the series is going to head straight down a Dementor's throat. Nor do I agree with those who think it would be a better story if it did.)
10. The business of inter-house unity will start involving the Slytherins. There have been signs of this right from the first book on; while Harry certainly has a dark side, I don't think "You would do well in Slytherin" is necessarily it. There are definitely real problems with Slytherin House, and some of them go straight back to Salazar Slytherin -- but while Slytherin has problems, I think Harry and others have made excessively sweeping assumptions. There will be some changes on both sides, in both attitude and reality, and I think HBP is where it's going to have to start.
11. Bonus prediction for the series as a whole, aka, attack of the really obvious:
11a. Harry will win.
11b. The prophecy will not mean quite what Harry and Dumbledore currently think it does. It will probably surprise Voldemort, too.
12. Predictions for the series as a whole which are not quite as certain:
12a. The Trio finishes the story alive.
12b. Hermione gets Ron, and vice versa, and they are happy about it.
12c. Ginny gets Harry, and vice versa, and they are happy about it too.
I am not making any pledges about staying in the fandom, or not judging the book based on one particular element or another, or declaring that if I made a wrong prediction it was my own fault for misreading. Considering that there are plenty of library books I've read and reread without ever buying my own copies, I think the fact that I've got a copy of HBP on reserve and intend to pick it up sometime on July 16 is a perfectly adequate expression of confidence that A. after writing five books I enjoyed, JKR will not suddenly shift into some bizarre gear of BANG (or POO) and B. I will want to talk to people about the book badly enough to pay for it in hardcover.
(I freely admit to being very fandom-influenced in that respect. If I didn't want to discuss it with people, I wouldn't consider reading it to be nearly so urgent a prospect.)
I will say, however, that there are stories where I adore certain concepts or characters but disagree with the author on major points and/or think the execution/development/followup was poor or erratic. So I can understand people who find their imagination captured by some aspects of a story but find themselves "fighting" with other portions.
But what the heck, I think I'll make some predictions about HBP. Granted, some of the stuff I was tickled to get right about OotP was a complete accident. I feel free to gloat about the characterization Alan and I gave Ginny in the Time's Riddle AU, since it was based on the assumption that she was generally pretty spunky in situations more normal than her first year, which are not hard to come by. While circumstances and not-being-JKR dictate that there are probably aspects that aren't a perfect fit, the Ginny thrust into our attention in OotP confirmed our basic conclusions. On the other hand, our study group that was supposed to end up in a little-known room of Hogwarts and our magical chameleons whose extreme blending-in camouflage worked about the same way as the Disillusionment Charm? Total chance, but terribly amusing.
Anyway, here goes: HBP predictions with a few book 7 thrown in.
1. The half-blood prince will turn out to be Godric Gryffindor. Merlin and Salazar are running second in my mind.
2. We will learn more about the Founders.
2a. This will include having it shown that Godric, Rowena, and/or Helga had flaws and could act like jerks.
2b. In accordance with the respose to Dumbledore's fallibility and Snape's Worst Memory, much of the fandom will forget anything positive we know about them and throw fits about how all the Founders except Salazar are evil, irredeemable, worthless scum.
3. We will learn more about Tom Riddle's background. (I suspect this is not actually a prediction but a reference to an interview, but I'm not sure.)
4. Harry will be back on the Quidditch team as Seeker.
5. Someone will explain to Harry the difference between murder and killing in self-defense. (This may only be wishful thinking.)
6. Parseltongue will become relevant again. It's about time.
6a. The boa will show up or be mentioned again. (Just-for-fun prediction.)
7. Snape will not be a villain. He might look like one for a while (again), and he will still frequently be a jerk, but Harry will eventually have to come to terms with the fact that Snape does not like him but has made real efforts to protect him anyway. Even though they broke down over Occlumency and the Pensieve. But frankly, I don't buy that book one's decoy-villain will turn out to be one for real, and I don't think JKR will break down what she's established in terms of a personal enemy genuinely doing wrong but being an ally and not-evil in the larger sense.
7a. I don't know whether Snape will or won't come to terms with the fact that Harry is not James, that his own view of James may have been skewed, and/or that Harry was nosing into the Pensieve out of suspicion rather than prurience. I'd really like him to, though. (Especially considering that some of the reading audience doesn't seem to grasp this last point. *eyeroll*)
8. Both Godric's Hollow and the Riddle House will be important again, but I'm not sure whether this will be in book 6 or 7.
9. HBP will not feel as "down" as OotP. No doubt there will be areas in which things will fall apart (the Dementors are running around loose, after all, and the DEs may well escape), but I think that even if Voldemort is making moves and causing major problems, the indications are that Harry and those immediately around him will be regrouping and getting their act together. I don't think any of the characters were at their best in OotP, and I think they will be doing a little better here. (OotP was darker than I was expecting, true, and it showed that I had probably been inclined to be too charitable in my estimation of many of the characters' good sense -- but it was still fun in many places, and I still don't think the overall tone of the series is going to head straight down a Dementor's throat. Nor do I agree with those who think it would be a better story if it did.)
10. The business of inter-house unity will start involving the Slytherins. There have been signs of this right from the first book on; while Harry certainly has a dark side, I don't think "You would do well in Slytherin" is necessarily it. There are definitely real problems with Slytherin House, and some of them go straight back to Salazar Slytherin -- but while Slytherin has problems, I think Harry and others have made excessively sweeping assumptions. There will be some changes on both sides, in both attitude and reality, and I think HBP is where it's going to have to start.
11. Bonus prediction for the series as a whole, aka, attack of the really obvious:
11a. Harry will win.
11b. The prophecy will not mean quite what Harry and Dumbledore currently think it does. It will probably surprise Voldemort, too.
12. Predictions for the series as a whole which are not quite as certain:
12a. The Trio finishes the story alive.
12b. Hermione gets Ron, and vice versa, and they are happy about it.
12c. Ginny gets Harry, and vice versa, and they are happy about it too.
no subject
Date: 2005-06-28 12:32 am (UTC)I really hope it's not Merlin. Salazar would be a nice twist, espcially if he's shown as not-evil - would be a way to start bringing the Slytherins onside, though I'm not sure how likely that is, given CoS. I hope it is one of the Founders, though - I'll be disappointed if it's an entirely new character. (Well, more accurately I'll find it more difficult to absorb if it's a new character. At this stage I'd rather see JKR bringing threads together than going off into entirely new areas.)
In accordance with the respose to Dumbledore's fallibility and Snape's Worst Memory, much of the fandom will forget anything positive we know about them and throw fits about how all the Founders except Salazar are evil, irredeemable, worthless scum.
*g*
6a. The boa will show up or be mentioned again. (Just-for-fun prediction.)
Oh yes, that would be fun!
HBP will not feel as "down" as OotP.
I'm not sure about this one - didn't JKR say in an interview a while ago that she'd like to take Harry out to lunch because she felt so bad about what she would be putting him through in Book 6?
That said, if Dumbledore isn't avoiding Harry and the book starts with something nice (i.e. whatever brings Harry to the Burrow) and there isn't that Umbridge-induced sense that the once bastion of security is being eaten from within, then it mightn't feel as down as OotP, whatever horrible things happen. I hope so - OotP was not a pleasant read in some ways.
Hmmm. Perhaps that's why I'm not feeling so excited about this one?
10. The business of inter-house unity will start involving the Slytherins.
Personally, I think it's likely to be a tenuous start - that the climax of this book will set up the conditions for this change in Book 7, in the way the Ministry's hostility was made evident at the end of GoF.
11a. Harry will win.
:)
no subject
Date: 2005-06-28 12:56 am (UTC)Merlin would seem a bit sudden -- he's been very much part of the background so far, and while introducing new things can still work at this stage, tackling Arthurian legend does seem a little unlikely. Still, it'd be interesting.
Salazar could be fun, but I think Godric has a better shot. Of course, I forgot the really obvious candidate -- if I weren't so bogged down in fandom's obsession over the big secret, I'd just figure it was Dumbledore.
But I want it to be a Founder so we'll find out more about them. Hee.
I'm not sure about this one - didn't JKR say in an interview a while ago that she'd like to take Harry out to lunch because she felt so bad about what she would be putting him through in Book 6?
I'm not sure of the date of this interview (though it may indeed have been post-OotP), but I'm pretty sure that she didn't specify book 6... and I think she also said at some point that OotP was the lowest of the books. I suppose I should dig up the quotes somewhere.
Personally, I think it's likely to be a tenuous start - that the climax of this book will set up the conditions for this change in Book 7, in the way the Ministry's hostility was made evident at the end of GoF.
Hmmm. I think it'll be very tentative and problematic on both sides at first, but I do think the change will be well in progress before the final battle, whether the bulk of it comes in this book or the next. I'm thinking there will be some noteworthy progress in HBP, though if we spend a lot of time on whatever Harry's doing with Dumbledore, I could see Harry being prepared for the change before the Slytherins mostly are. Then again, I suppose that depends on how it's constructed....
*is impatient*
no subject
Date: 2005-06-29 10:21 am (UTC)Likewise. :)
I'm not sure of the date of this interview (though it may indeed have been post-OotP)
I'm pretty sure it was, and that she was working on HBP at the time. But I don't trust my interpretation of JKR's interviews now, after being convinced that she wasn't going to kill Sirius because she'd said pre-GoF that she wouldn't. (referring only to GoF, I see now!)
I do think the change will be well in progress before the final battle
I agree - and hopefully key to it. I suppose the bulk of it could come in HBP; it just seems that it would have to be a huge turnaround after there being no sign of it to date. But anything's possible.
*is impatient*
*g*