Ramblerambleramble...
Jun. 26th, 2005 06:44 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
persephone_koreI keep seeing entries lately where, in relation to the next Harry Potter book, people hold forth or argue about whether it's legitimate to prejudge Plot Development X (or the lack thereof) as good or bad. I'm a little torn, myself. I think that there are some developments I could safely say ahead of time would strike me as unenjoyable or inconsistent or lower quality than other alternatives -- even some plausible ones. On the other hand, I tend to think that nearly any scenario can be done well... and as others have previously pointed out, JKR's stock in trade involves putting together innumerable cliches (or classic story elements) in her own way. The world's bricks and her own mortar, so to speak. Kinda like Star Wars, and I mean that with no disrespect to either JKR or Lucas.
I am not making any pledges about staying in the fandom, or not judging the book based on one particular element or another, or declaring that if I made a wrong prediction it was my own fault for misreading. Considering that there are plenty of library books I've read and reread without ever buying my own copies, I think the fact that I've got a copy of HBP on reserve and intend to pick it up sometime on July 16 is a perfectly adequate expression of confidence that A. after writing five books I enjoyed, JKR will not suddenly shift into some bizarre gear of BANG (or POO) and B. I will want to talk to people about the book badly enough to pay for it in hardcover.
(I freely admit to being very fandom-influenced in that respect. If I didn't want to discuss it with people, I wouldn't consider reading it to be nearly so urgent a prospect.)
I will say, however, that there are stories where I adore certain concepts or characters but disagree with the author on major points and/or think the execution/development/followup was poor or erratic. So I can understand people who find their imagination captured by some aspects of a story but find themselves "fighting" with other portions.
But what the heck, I think I'll make some predictions about HBP. Granted, some of the stuff I was tickled to get right about OotP was a complete accident. I feel free to gloat about the characterization Alan and I gave Ginny in the Time's Riddle AU, since it was based on the assumption that she was generally pretty spunky in situations more normal than her first year, which are not hard to come by. While circumstances and not-being-JKR dictate that there are probably aspects that aren't a perfect fit, the Ginny thrust into our attention in OotP confirmed our basic conclusions. On the other hand, our study group that was supposed to end up in a little-known room of Hogwarts and our magical chameleons whose extreme blending-in camouflage worked about the same way as the Disillusionment Charm? Total chance, but terribly amusing.
Anyway, here goes: HBP predictions with a few book 7 thrown in.
1. The half-blood prince will turn out to be Godric Gryffindor. Merlin and Salazar are running second in my mind.
2. We will learn more about the Founders.
2a. This will include having it shown that Godric, Rowena, and/or Helga had flaws and could act like jerks.
2b. In accordance with the respose to Dumbledore's fallibility and Snape's Worst Memory, much of the fandom will forget anything positive we know about them and throw fits about how all the Founders except Salazar are evil, irredeemable, worthless scum.
3. We will learn more about Tom Riddle's background. (I suspect this is not actually a prediction but a reference to an interview, but I'm not sure.)
4. Harry will be back on the Quidditch team as Seeker.
5. Someone will explain to Harry the difference between murder and killing in self-defense. (This may only be wishful thinking.)
6. Parseltongue will become relevant again. It's about time.
6a. The boa will show up or be mentioned again. (Just-for-fun prediction.)
7. Snape will not be a villain. He might look like one for a while (again), and he will still frequently be a jerk, but Harry will eventually have to come to terms with the fact that Snape does not like him but has made real efforts to protect him anyway. Even though they broke down over Occlumency and the Pensieve. But frankly, I don't buy that book one's decoy-villain will turn out to be one for real, and I don't think JKR will break down what she's established in terms of a personal enemy genuinely doing wrong but being an ally and not-evil in the larger sense.
7a. I don't know whether Snape will or won't come to terms with the fact that Harry is not James, that his own view of James may have been skewed, and/or that Harry was nosing into the Pensieve out of suspicion rather than prurience. I'd really like him to, though. (Especially considering that some of the reading audience doesn't seem to grasp this last point. *eyeroll*)
8. Both Godric's Hollow and the Riddle House will be important again, but I'm not sure whether this will be in book 6 or 7.
9. HBP will not feel as "down" as OotP. No doubt there will be areas in which things will fall apart (the Dementors are running around loose, after all, and the DEs may well escape), but I think that even if Voldemort is making moves and causing major problems, the indications are that Harry and those immediately around him will be regrouping and getting their act together. I don't think any of the characters were at their best in OotP, and I think they will be doing a little better here. (OotP was darker than I was expecting, true, and it showed that I had probably been inclined to be too charitable in my estimation of many of the characters' good sense -- but it was still fun in many places, and I still don't think the overall tone of the series is going to head straight down a Dementor's throat. Nor do I agree with those who think it would be a better story if it did.)
10. The business of inter-house unity will start involving the Slytherins. There have been signs of this right from the first book on; while Harry certainly has a dark side, I don't think "You would do well in Slytherin" is necessarily it. There are definitely real problems with Slytherin House, and some of them go straight back to Salazar Slytherin -- but while Slytherin has problems, I think Harry and others have made excessively sweeping assumptions. There will be some changes on both sides, in both attitude and reality, and I think HBP is where it's going to have to start.
11. Bonus prediction for the series as a whole, aka, attack of the really obvious:
11a. Harry will win.
11b. The prophecy will not mean quite what Harry and Dumbledore currently think it does. It will probably surprise Voldemort, too.
12. Predictions for the series as a whole which are not quite as certain:
12a. The Trio finishes the story alive.
12b. Hermione gets Ron, and vice versa, and they are happy about it.
12c. Ginny gets Harry, and vice versa, and they are happy about it too.
I am not making any pledges about staying in the fandom, or not judging the book based on one particular element or another, or declaring that if I made a wrong prediction it was my own fault for misreading. Considering that there are plenty of library books I've read and reread without ever buying my own copies, I think the fact that I've got a copy of HBP on reserve and intend to pick it up sometime on July 16 is a perfectly adequate expression of confidence that A. after writing five books I enjoyed, JKR will not suddenly shift into some bizarre gear of BANG (or POO) and B. I will want to talk to people about the book badly enough to pay for it in hardcover.
(I freely admit to being very fandom-influenced in that respect. If I didn't want to discuss it with people, I wouldn't consider reading it to be nearly so urgent a prospect.)
I will say, however, that there are stories where I adore certain concepts or characters but disagree with the author on major points and/or think the execution/development/followup was poor or erratic. So I can understand people who find their imagination captured by some aspects of a story but find themselves "fighting" with other portions.
But what the heck, I think I'll make some predictions about HBP. Granted, some of the stuff I was tickled to get right about OotP was a complete accident. I feel free to gloat about the characterization Alan and I gave Ginny in the Time's Riddle AU, since it was based on the assumption that she was generally pretty spunky in situations more normal than her first year, which are not hard to come by. While circumstances and not-being-JKR dictate that there are probably aspects that aren't a perfect fit, the Ginny thrust into our attention in OotP confirmed our basic conclusions. On the other hand, our study group that was supposed to end up in a little-known room of Hogwarts and our magical chameleons whose extreme blending-in camouflage worked about the same way as the Disillusionment Charm? Total chance, but terribly amusing.
Anyway, here goes: HBP predictions with a few book 7 thrown in.
1. The half-blood prince will turn out to be Godric Gryffindor. Merlin and Salazar are running second in my mind.
2. We will learn more about the Founders.
2a. This will include having it shown that Godric, Rowena, and/or Helga had flaws and could act like jerks.
2b. In accordance with the respose to Dumbledore's fallibility and Snape's Worst Memory, much of the fandom will forget anything positive we know about them and throw fits about how all the Founders except Salazar are evil, irredeemable, worthless scum.
3. We will learn more about Tom Riddle's background. (I suspect this is not actually a prediction but a reference to an interview, but I'm not sure.)
4. Harry will be back on the Quidditch team as Seeker.
5. Someone will explain to Harry the difference between murder and killing in self-defense. (This may only be wishful thinking.)
6. Parseltongue will become relevant again. It's about time.
6a. The boa will show up or be mentioned again. (Just-for-fun prediction.)
7. Snape will not be a villain. He might look like one for a while (again), and he will still frequently be a jerk, but Harry will eventually have to come to terms with the fact that Snape does not like him but has made real efforts to protect him anyway. Even though they broke down over Occlumency and the Pensieve. But frankly, I don't buy that book one's decoy-villain will turn out to be one for real, and I don't think JKR will break down what she's established in terms of a personal enemy genuinely doing wrong but being an ally and not-evil in the larger sense.
7a. I don't know whether Snape will or won't come to terms with the fact that Harry is not James, that his own view of James may have been skewed, and/or that Harry was nosing into the Pensieve out of suspicion rather than prurience. I'd really like him to, though. (Especially considering that some of the reading audience doesn't seem to grasp this last point. *eyeroll*)
8. Both Godric's Hollow and the Riddle House will be important again, but I'm not sure whether this will be in book 6 or 7.
9. HBP will not feel as "down" as OotP. No doubt there will be areas in which things will fall apart (the Dementors are running around loose, after all, and the DEs may well escape), but I think that even if Voldemort is making moves and causing major problems, the indications are that Harry and those immediately around him will be regrouping and getting their act together. I don't think any of the characters were at their best in OotP, and I think they will be doing a little better here. (OotP was darker than I was expecting, true, and it showed that I had probably been inclined to be too charitable in my estimation of many of the characters' good sense -- but it was still fun in many places, and I still don't think the overall tone of the series is going to head straight down a Dementor's throat. Nor do I agree with those who think it would be a better story if it did.)
10. The business of inter-house unity will start involving the Slytherins. There have been signs of this right from the first book on; while Harry certainly has a dark side, I don't think "You would do well in Slytherin" is necessarily it. There are definitely real problems with Slytherin House, and some of them go straight back to Salazar Slytherin -- but while Slytherin has problems, I think Harry and others have made excessively sweeping assumptions. There will be some changes on both sides, in both attitude and reality, and I think HBP is where it's going to have to start.
11. Bonus prediction for the series as a whole, aka, attack of the really obvious:
11a. Harry will win.
11b. The prophecy will not mean quite what Harry and Dumbledore currently think it does. It will probably surprise Voldemort, too.
12. Predictions for the series as a whole which are not quite as certain:
12a. The Trio finishes the story alive.
12b. Hermione gets Ron, and vice versa, and they are happy about it.
12c. Ginny gets Harry, and vice versa, and they are happy about it too.
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no subject
Date: 2005-06-27 04:52 am (UTC)He might look like one for a while (again), and he will still frequently be a jerk, but Harry will eventually have to come to terms with the fact that Snape does not like him but has made real efforts to protect him anyway.
And Ron will not trust him. Don't they ever learn?
I don't know whether Snape will or won't come to terms with the fact that Harry is not James, that his own view of James may have been skewed, and/or that Harry was nosing into the Pensieve out of suspicion rather than prurience. I'd really like him to, though. (Especially considering that some of the reading audience doesn't seem to grasp this last point. *eyeroll*)
Snape sure doesn't paint a very accurate picture of stable adulthood. I know a lot of people who can keep grudges for astoundingly great lengths of time, for about pretty much exactly the same reasons (except for the whole Shack incident) as Snape's... but they sure as hell wouldn't extend the grudge to their kids.
Also with regards to fandom- look, Snape has to look at Harry's actions. but I think fandom needs to be thinking a little bit more in terms of the book: sometimes you need devices, and the Pensieve was a device, and not even a particularly subtle one. it's not Harry's fault he looked into it, it's JKR's! She needed a way to, oh, give Harry more angst- I know, I know, it's more complicated than that- and she needed a way to do it reasonably plausibly without setting up anything terribly complicated or publicly humiliating for Snape. That was the way.
9. HBP will not feel as "down" as OotP
Actually, I think JKR said in an interview somewhere that OotP is "Harry's lowest point." I'm not sure how it works that his lowest point is before Sirius' death and not after, but I am frankly relieved anyway. :D I want a little bit of happiness for our boy.
10. The business of inter-house unity will start involving the Slytherins.
And you know what? If we get a Good!Slytherin- which I suspect we will- and it's not Theodore Nott, I think
11. Bonus prediction for the series as a whole, aka, attack of the really obvious:
11a. Harry will win.
*snickers* And after the seventh book comes out, they'll make you put it under a really big spoiler warning. *facepalm*
no subject
Date: 2005-06-27 05:21 am (UTC)Well, OotP did include some time after Sirius's death -- and it was rather stormy! -- but he did basically spend the entire book in a funk with nearly everything seeming to go wrong. And a chronic headache. Losing Sirius was... the culmination, but I think Harry hit bottom and is on his way back up.
I remember that quote. I should've specified that this wasn't a proper prediction either. *wry grin*
And you know what? If we get a Good!Slytherin- which I suspect we will- and it's not Theodore Nott, I think sixth_light will spontaneously combust- especially if it's, like, Blaise or someone. She'd have conniptions. It's almost enough for me to wish for it, except I genuinely do want Theo&Anne to be a tad plausible so... ;) Also, from what she's said about Theodore on her website, I think there's quite a good case for it. *crosses fingers*
Yeah, I think there is. Not being part of Draco's crowd is going to be a requirement, I think, and is thus a promising sign.
I think we'll have more than just one, but not too many developed.
*snickers* And after the seventh book comes out, they'll make you put it under a really big spoiler warning. *facepalm*
Yeah, I followed a link to a supposedly spoiler-laden article shortly before OotP... It did give Umbridge's name, I think, but I posted the other two major pieces of information uncut out of sheer defiance. It informed us that Ron was really interested in Quidditch and Hermione had been researching something.
...Come to think of it, I'm not sure what she was researching. I still think her approach to the house-elf problem indicates that she hasn't researched enough. (Obviously she needs more information, if she's going on about how happy they'll be and they're going on strike in a huff.)
no subject
Date: 2005-06-27 05:27 am (UTC)IN CAPSLOCK. Yeah. Also, fifth form is not a fun year, although personally, I thought sixth from was much worse. :P
I think we'll have more than just one, but not too many developed. I agree. I'm hoping for some good Slytherin girls, as well, although that may be too much to wish for. :)
It informed us that Ron was really interested in Quidditch and Hermione had been researching something. *spittakes*
I mean, I have a lot of sympathy for people who don't like spoilers BUT. There are limits. Things like taking the blurb off the backs of the covers, or deciding not to go see the covers- these are all things that you see before you read the book anyway, for Pete's sake. And OMG Hermione's researching something? NO! :P
no subject
Date: 2005-06-27 05:40 am (UTC)And I still maintain that if the blurb is too spoilery to let out before the release date, it's too spoilery to be a blurb and they should have rewritten it. I think they're just feeding the hype.